Stock Market News From Jan. 19, 2024: S&P 500, Dow Mark Record Highs; AMD, Nvidia, Spirit Airlines, and More ... - Barron's

Americans are starting off the new year on the right foot, with their feelings about the U.S. economy continuing to improve.

Preliminary data from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index found that sentiment soared 13% to a reading of 78.8 in the first few weeks of January, its highest reading since July 2021. Consensus estimates had forecasted sentiment would tick down to 69.5 from December’s 69.7 reading, according to FactSet.

The reading suggests that the sharp increase in December “was no fluke,” said Joanne Hsu, director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan.

“Consumer views were supported by confidence that inflation has turned a corner and strengthening income expectations,” Hsu added.

Indeed, inflation expectations for the year ahead were 2.9%, the lowest reading since December 2020. Even the fact that inflation trended up slightly in December, with the consumer-price index climbing 3.4% year over year from 3.1% in November, didn’t deter consumers from having a more upbeat outlook for the economy.

Over the last two months, sentiment has jumped a cumulative 29%, Hsu said, the largest two-month increase since 1991. The index is also nearly 60% higher than the all-time low notched in June 2022, and is getting closer to the long-time historical average.

Also helping lift confidence was the expectation that the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates this year, wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group.

Markets were higher following the report’s release, as the report bolstered investors’ hopes that lower inflation expectations would encourage the Fed to cut rates sooner rather than later.

“Inflation expectations over the next 12 months have convincingly improved, giving the Fed the opportunity to cut rates as early as March,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial.

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were both climbing 0.3% in midmorning trading. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.5%.

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