Biggest Dominoes Still to Fall in NFL RB Market After D'Andre Swift 2023 Draft Trade - Bleacher Report
Biggest Dominoes Still to Fall in NFL RB Market After D'Andre Swift 2023 Draft Trade
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While the football world was largely (and rightfully) focused on the NFL draft over the past three days, we had some player movement that didn't directly involve rookie selections.
The Detroit Lions used the 12th overall pick on Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs, which made veteran D'Andre Swift expendable. Two days later, Detroit sent Swift and the No. 249 overall pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for the 219th overall pick and a 2025 fourth-rounder, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
While that isn't a ton of value, it's at least something for a player who didn't seem to have a future in Detroit beyond this season. Swift is heading into the final year of his rookie contract. Meanwhile, the Eagles got a proven dual-threat back instead of taking a flier on an unproven prospect late in the draft.
With the draft now over, teams that didn't address their running back need could look to fill those holes on the trade or free-agent markets.
Which running-back dominoes could be next to fall in the wake of the Swift deal? Let's take a look at what could happen next and make a few predictions. Players are listed in alphabetical order.
Dalvin Cook
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Like Swift, Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook is a valuable dual threat. Last season, he tallied 1,173 rushing yards, 295 receiving yards and 10 total touchdowns.
According to KSTP's Darren Wolfson (h/t Will Ragatz of Inside The Vikings), the Vikings have received trade calls on Cook. However, as Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer recently noted, trading players like Cook and pass-rusher Za'Darius Smith would be financially complicated.
"The problem with both is each will require a contract adjustment to be moved," Breer wrote.
Cook had $2 million of his salary for this season guaranteed on March 17, and he carries a base salary of $10.4 million in 2023. Minnesota may not want to pay much of Cook's salary after already dishing out the bonus, but few teams are equipped to take on the remainder.
Teams with the required cap space that could be interested include the Houston Texans—who could use another weapon for rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud—and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals currently have Joe Mixon on their roster, but we'll address his uncertain future shortly.
The Buffalo Bills could be interested in pairing Cook with his brother James Cook, but Buffalo would likely have to clear additional cap space to do so.
According to Breer, the Miami Dolphins inquired about Cook in March, but they pivoted to speedy Texas A&M product Devon Achane in the third round of the draft. With Miami now out of the mix, Cook might remain a Viking for at least one more season.
Prediction: Cook plays for Minnesota in 2023
Austin Ekeler
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Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler is another elite dual threat who had 1,637 yards from scrimmage and 18 combined touchdowns last season. When his extension negotiations broke down earlier this offseason, Ekeler requested a trade and was granted permission to seek one.
Miami and Cincinnati both would have been logical landing spots for Ekeler—again, pending Mixon's future—prior to the draft. However, the Dolphins selected Achane in the third round, while the Bengals took Illinois' Chase Brown in the fifth round.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers don't have a proven starter after releasing Leonard Fournette this offseason, and they could use a back of Ekeler's caliber to support either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask at quarterback this season. But with only $1.9 million in cap space, it would be difficult for them to make the money work.
The prediction here is that Los Angeles keeps Ekeler, not just because of a lack of potential trade partners. The Chargers upgraded their receiving corps with their first-round selection of Quentin Johnston and did not draft a potential replacement for Ekeler.
L.A. is ready to make a run in the AFC, and moving Ekeler would be counterproductive with no succession plan in place. Ekeler doesn't appear to be a threat to hold out for an extension or a trade, either.
"I guess the worst-case scenario right now out of all of it, I'll come back and I'll have to play for the Chargers for a year and bet on myself and then be a free agent next year," Ekeler told SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (h/t NFL.com's Nick Shook).
If Ekeler is willing to play for the Chargers this season, they should let him.
Prediction: Ekeler plays out his contract with the Chargers
Ezekiel Elliott
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The Dallas Cowboys released running back Ezekiel Elliott earlier this offseason in a cap-saving move. While Elliott has clearly lost some burst—he averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per carry last season—he's still a serviceable rotational back. He had double-digit rushing touchdowns in each of the past two seasons and caught 47 passes in 2021.
Teams like Cincinnati, Buffalo and Tampa Bay could take a look at Elliott after the draft. However, a return to Dallas might make even more sense for him.
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and head coach Mike McCarthy have already said they haven't shut the door on a possible return, and quarterback Dak Prescott would be thrilled with a reunion as well.
"I know myself, and I can tell you there's a lot of people not only on the team but the organization that would love that," Prescott said during an appearance on The Adam Schefter Podcast (h/t Adam Schultz of Cowboys Country).
While the Cowboys did draft a complementary back in Kansas State's Deuce Vaughn, they waited until the sixth round to do so. There's still room for Elliott in their backfield rotation, and the Cowboys are in win-now mode.
The question is whether Dallas can convince Elliott to take a team-friendly deal that doesn't consume much of its remaining $16.7 million of cap space.
Prediction: Elliott re-signs with Dallas before training camp
Kareem Hunt
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Like Elliott, Kareem Hunt is a former star dual threat who has seemingly declined over the past few years. Hunt averaged only 3.8 yards per carry and 6.0 yards per reception last season, both of which were career lows.
A return to Cleveland seems unlikely for two reasons. For one, Hunt requested a trade last season, likely seeking a more prominent role than the one he had behind Nick Chubb.
Secondly, Cleveland had concerns about Hunt's ability to remain a high-level playmaker. According to Terry Pluto of cleveland.com, the Browns believed his speed is "slipping."
However, Hunt has generated minimal interest in free agency to this point, which could put a damper on his desire to again be a lead back. Meanwhile, the Browns haven't completely ruled out a return.
"I don't know that we've necessarily shut the door on anything," general manager Andrew Berry said prior to the draft, per NFL.com's Kevin Patra. "Look, we're not playing games until September, so we'll remain open-minded to anything that can help the team."
The Browns didn't draft a complementary back over the weekend and could use depth behind Chubb and Jerome Ford, especially since they also lost D'Ernest Johnson in free agency. While teams like Buffalo, Tampa and the Arizona Cardinals could have some interest, a return to Cleveland might make the most sense for Hunt since he knows the offense and the personnel, assuming he's content to be a backup.
Prediction: Hunt re-signs with Cleveland
Joe Mixon
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Joe Mixon's future in Cincinnati still isn't settled. He recently pleaded not guilty to one count of aggravated menacing, wasn't particularly efficient last season (3.9 yards per carry) and has a $12.8 million cap hit for the coming season. Cincinnati could save $10 million off the 2023 cap by releasing him after June 1.
Executive vice president Katie Blackburn didn't provide much clarity when discussing Mixon's situation in March.
"It's a big jigsaw puzzle, and you put one piece in, and maybe that changes the way you see another piece. So we just have to wait and see how things play out a little bit," Blackburn said, per Geoff Hobson of the team's official website.
The Bengals did lose Samaje Perine in free agency and didn't take an early swing on a running back. It certainly sounds like Cincinnati views Chase Brown as a complement to Mixon instead of a potential replacement.
"Joe can't take every rep. (Brown) will be able to spell Joe when he's needed," offensive coordinator Brian Callahan said, per Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
Mixon was a Pro Bowler in 2021, and he's still a capable receiving back and pass protector on third downs. Expect the Bengals to find other ways to save cap space while working on quarterback Joe Burrow's contract extension.
Prediction: Cincinnati restructures Mixon's contract, keeps him for the 2023 season
Leonard Fournette
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Leonard Fournette is the other big-name running back lingering on the free-agent market. The 2017 fourth overall pick never quite lived up to his draft status, but he became a reliable do-it-all back who won a Super Bowl with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020.
In his six NFL seasons, Fournette has recorded 4,478 rushing yards, 2,219 receiving yards and 41 total touchdowns. He requested his release this offseason and was granted it.
While Fournette struggled to run behind Tampa's offensive line last season (3.5 yards per carry), he remained a quality receiving back. The then—7-year-old caught 73 passes for 523 yards and three touchdowns.
If Fournette isn't open to a return to Tampa, he may have to wait until the situations of players like Elliott, Ekeler, Hunt, Cook and Mixon are more settled. He'd be a fine fit for a team seeking a veteran third-down back.
Arizona might want a proven receiving back to spell James Conner, and the Denver Broncos might want some additional veteran depth while Javonte Williams continues to recover from a torn ACL and LCL.
However, the prediction here is that Fournette remains unsigned until teams get a better idea of what they have in offseason minicamps.
Prediction: Fournette remains available until closer to training camp
Cap and contract information via Spotrac.
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